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JPY Rallying Post-BOJ
On the back of the latest BOJ meeting overnight, the Japanese Yen is strengthening a little across early European trading on Tuesday. The BOJ held its headline policy unchanged, with rates remaining in negative territory, as expected. However, there were some hints in the outlook with regard to inflation that appear to have piqued bulls’ interest.
BOJ Price Target in View
On inflation, the BOJ noted that it felt more confident in achieving its price stability target of 2% sustainably. The BOJ has previously noted this as a key criterion for any shift in policy and with its goal now in sight, traders sense that the bank is lining up for a potential policy shift in H1. Indeed, the bank made these comments on inflation while reducing its CPI outlook for fiscal year 2024 to 2.4% from 2.8% prior.
BOJ Mulling Future Rates
While the BOJ offered little in the way of new forward guidance in the statement, there were some comments during the post-meeting press conference which have added further support for JPY. Governor Ueda confirmed that the prospect of seeing trend inflation hit 2% is “gradually heightening”. When questioned on whether the BOJ has a future rates path in mind, Ueda said the bank is confident it can avoid “the risk of a severe, irregular policy shift.”
Tightening Coming
The takeaway from this month’s meeting is that the prospect of a shift in BOJ policy is growing more real. As such, any data or commentary supporting this narrative should keep JPY supported near-term while traders look towards the next meeting and a firmer signal on timing.
Technical Views
USDJPY
For now, the rally in USDJPY has stalled into the 148.98 level resistance. While some correction from here is feasible, the 145 level will be key to watch. While that support holds, focus remains on a further push higher and a test of the broken bull trend line/151.81 area next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.