Gold

The gold market has started the week under slight selling pressure with prices retreating over the early European session on Monday. In the near term, the key driver for gold continues to be Fed rate hike expectations. A slew of more hawkish comments from several Fed policymakers last week helped lift the Dollar. However, softer data across the back end of the week weighed on USD sentiment, turning the focus back to concerns around economic growth. While the market is keen to push USD higher on any positive input, there is still some uncertainty around Fed tapering given the frequent data misses we are seeing.

This week, the big focus will be on the US September labour reports due on Friday. While the Fed has recently acknowledged the strength in inflation, chairman Powell noted that employment remains far from maximal levels. With this in mind, Friday’s data holds the potential to create a lot of market volatility if we see an upside surprise. On the back of the significant undershoot we saw in August’s data, the market is no looking for September jobs growth of 490k, up from 235k prior. If we see a print around this level or above, it will likely sharpen the market’s tapering expectations, creating plenty of demand for USD, weighing on gold. However, should the data underperform once again, gold prices will likely trade much higher in reaction to the data, with USD likely to come under heavy selling pressure.

Silver

The silver market has largely tracked the recent moves in gold. The resurgence in USD over the last month has weighed heavily on silver with the market shedding around $3 in September as global demand concerns and a stronger Dollar weighed on sentiment. The fall back in equities recently has been an issue for silver also, particularly given the metal’s relationship with the industrial indices. Looking ahead this week, USD data will be key for the path of silver with any USD upside likely to create further selling pressure in the metal.

Technical Views

Gold

The recent decline in gold has seen the market trading back down to retest the broken bear channel top. Price has subsequently seen a small bounce. However, the 1763.88 level is holding as resistance for now. With indicators still bearish, the focus is on continued downside while below the level. Back above there, however, there is room for a move up to 1826.71 next.

Silver

The decline in the sliver market has seen price trading lower within a well defined bearish channel. Recently, the break below the 22.3205 level saw buyers step in taking price back above the level. With bullish divergence in momentum studies around this area also, there are signs the market Is due a correction higher in the near term, with 24.0073 the key upside level to watch.