Hawkish Fed Expectations Weighing on Metals

Silver prices are sitting atop support at the 22.3205 level ahead of the final USD GDP number later today. The metal has come back under heavy selling pressure over the last two weeks amidst an uptick in hawkish Fed expectations. Despite the Fed holding rates unchanged in June, the bank has signalled conviction in its view that further hikes will likely be appropriate. This guidance has acted as a headwind to what might have been a solid rally in equities and commodities otherwise. This week, Fed’s Powell has reiterated the bank’s stance and the view that further hikes could come as early as the next meeting.

US Data on Watch

Looking ahead today, traders are awaiting the final US GDP number for the last quarter which is expected to have ticked up to 1.4% from 1.3% prior. If this reading is confirmed, or outperformed, this should reinforce hawkish expectations, weighing on silver and other metals near-term. Alongside the GDP data we are also waiting on the latest unemployment claims number. Given the focus on a potential July hike, and the proximity to next week’s NFP, any strength today will further bolster rate hike expectations. Alternatively, if we see a miss on unemployment claims today this might add some uncertainty ahead of next week’s data.

Technical Views

Silver

Following the failure at 24.0073, silver prices have since dropped back down to test the 22.3205 level support. This area is holding for now. However, with momentum studies bearish, risks of a downside break are growing, turning focus to 20.6398 below.