SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 21/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~15 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6410/00
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6560 SUP 6380
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6380/70
DAILY RANGE RES 6475 SUP 6354
2 SIGMA RES 6534 SUP 6294
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.50
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING DOWN 6430
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
GOLDMAN SACHS FICC AND EQUITIES AEJ ONE DELTA SALES [GS Sales Note]:
The MIT survey that caused the tech sell-off; Is the $1 Trillion investment in Generative AI justified? AI Baskets for investing LONG (or SHORT). "Global Crossing"? Many investors have linked the recent sell-off in US tech stocks to the publication of an MIT industry survey titled “The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025.” I quickly reviewed the survey summary. The key takeaway that upset Wall Street was that “despite $30-40 billion spent on generative AI by enterprises, 95% of organizations report no business return.” “The divide is characterized by high adoption but low transformation. The report indicates that only two industries are demonstrating clear signs of structural disruption, while seven others are engaging in widespread experimentation without real transformation.” It’s puzzling how MIT Media Lab’s report from July (Media Lab focuses on inter-disciplinary studies) only gained Wall Street's attention in mid-August... Perhaps investors are simply seeking a reason to sell amid the high valuations of AI-related stocks... Nonetheless, the survey's conclusion isn’t particularly shocking. I referred back to the GS “Top of Mind” report from June 2024, which questioned whether the $1 Trillion investment in Generative AI is worthwhile. “Generative AI: Too Much Spending, Too Little Reward?” In that report, we spoke with MIT Institute Professor Daron Acemoglu (Author of “Why Nations Fail”), who discussed the significance of the 5% magic number. He predicted a ~0.5% rise in productivity and a ~1% increase in GDP over the next decade due to AI, in contrast to GS economists’ projections of a ~9% rise in productivity and a 6.1% increase in GDP. This reminds me of a company named Global Crossing during the Dot.Com boom. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Crossing It was once among the most sought-after companies because it invested extensively in undersea cables connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The company had a sound vision, and 25 years later, we all benefit from the data transmission facilitated by those cables. However, the company went bankrupt when the Dot.Com bubble burst. Sometimes, a vision may indeed be correct, yet the timeline to realize that vision can be much longer than anticipated. I am uncertain if the current enthusiasm for AI will meet a similar fate...
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!